Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Economic recovery policies must focus on income inequality rather than on GDP growth

Vijay K. Mathur

Policymakers, following economists and media in general, have traditionally focused on implementing policies to increase growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product). However, beginning in the early 1970s, increasing income inequality shows that all Americans have not shared the prosperity generated by economic growth. Isabel Sawhill, in her book "The Forgotten Americans," raises this issue very cogently.
Sawhill primarily addresses the economic plight of the white working class between the ages of 25 and 64. Since the ’70s, labor force participation has been decreasing and wage and salary income has been stagnant for this group, even with the increase in productivity. The same holds true for most Americans. The labor force participation rate peaked at 67.3% in early 2000 and has since declined to almost 63% percent, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Most productivity gains have gone to Americans in the top of the income distribution. Hence, income inequality has increased, and its incidence is harder on low- and middle-income Americans with an inadequate social insurance system.
Congressional Research Service reported July 23, 2019, that cumulative percent change during 1979-2018 in real wages for households in the top 10% of the income distribution was 37.6%, while for the middle- and low-income households it was 1.6% and 6.1%, respectively. Men in the middle and low income lost and women gained real wages. Household income for the top 1% increased 229% while the bottom 90% gained only 46% for the years 1979-2015 (Economic Policy Institute (EPI), March 27, 2019). Wage inequality is the driving force for income inequality. Using census data, Utah Workforce Services reports that Utah’s income inequality index (Gini coefficient) declined during 2014-2017 but has increased since 2017.
The capitalist system, supported by technological revolution and globalization, lately has not generated an economic system where all Americans have shared in private sector prosperity and growth in productivity. Real wages have diverged from productivity since the ’70s. EPI reports that cumulative percentage change in productivity from 1979 to 2017 was 70.3%, while hourly compensation grew only 11.1%. It is the responsibility of the government and the private sector to ensure jobs’ growth, with wage growth commensurate with increase in productivity. The gig economy, with more part-time workers and contract workers, and more self-employed (not by choice), is not a healthy sign of a growth economy, higher standard of living and happiness.
Involuntary unemployment surprises many economists, especially conservative politicians and policymakers. They would argue that a rational individual should be willing to accept a job, even if wages paid are below his or her expectations. However, as Nobel Laureate Professors George Akerlof and Robert Shiller argue in the book "Animal Sprits," the answer lies in efficiency wages. Effectiveness and efficiency of work effort in a job depends upon the wages paid. Employers cannot monitor their workers' efforts perfectly in doing their jobs. Employers’ preference for lower wages may backfire in lack of motivation, reduced work effort and productivity.
The COVID-19 pandemic has further worsened the economic well-being of low- and middle-income Americans. Their employment prospects look dim even after the emergence of a virus treatment and vaccine. Policymakers have to implement plans for education and training programs to prepare the labor force for emerging technologies. Utah has done better than many other states during the epidemic. Reduction in unemployment claims in Utah is a healthy sign for a quicker recovery. However, attention must be given to shared prosperity.
The growth rate of the economy is essential, but the focus must be on its distributive aspects — i.e., how it affects working Americans whose main earnings and standard of living is determined by labor market participation. Income is based upon education and training in the technologically sophisticated economy. I hope that our policymakers and politicians are wise enough to foresee the upcoming challenges.

Mathur is former chairman and professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH. He blogs at mathursblogonomics.blogspot.com

The Free market: An instrument of economic growth

Vijay K. Mathur


In the current Democratic presidential debates, concern is raised that free market capitalism is contributing to income and wealth inequality. Capitalism now is seen as crony capitalism, where businesses get political and regulatory favors to benefit themselves rather than most Americans, thus increasing income inequality. Is there a better economic system than free market that brings growth and prosperity to the nation and its people?

Presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders is a proponent of “democratic socialism,” a term borrowed from the economic system of Nordic countries (such as Sweden, Norway, Denmark) that existed in the 1960s. These countries are now far removed from socialism and have a thriving free market system, more freedom (www.heritage.org), less regulation, higher per capita income and lower income inequality than the US. They have a very robust and extensive social safety net compared to the US, and their residents are willing to pay higher tax rates to support it.

What kind of free market system produces high growth and prosperity that benefits most people in a country? Contrary to the general notion among many economists, William L. Baumol, professor of economics at Princeton and New York Universities (now deceased), cogently argued in his book “The Free-Market Innovation Machine” that an oligopolistic market structure with few firms dominating in competitive free markets drives innovation and growth. Free market competition among a few dominant firms forces them to make innovations part of their economic strategy to survive. Innovations are “systematized” and “routinized” in oligopolies and are the drivers of economic growth and higher standard of living. Utah’s growth is largely driven by innovating industries, called super-centers by the Brookings study (The New Yorker, Feb. 3, 2015). Utah is one of the top 15 innovation centers in the country.

Oligopolies have resources to routinize innovations and keep track of other firms’ behavior in order to be competitive. However, a large number of small firms competing in perfectly competitive markets (an ideal free market structure) do not have resources to routinize the innovation process. In addition, they cannot keep track of other competitors’ economic strategies, ascertain emerging technologies and dynamic movements of markets.

Many individual innovators and entrepreneurs eventually transform themselves into larger oligopolistic firms. Examples of new small-scale startups that eventually became giant multinational companies are Google (now part of Alphabet), Microsoft and Apple. These companies compete in oligopolistic markets and are constantly engaged in incremental product innovations to keep ahead of their competitive rivals.

A labor force that matches the skills and talents needed in innovative companies participates in the economic growth and prosperity. Professor Thomas Philippon argues in his book “The Great Reversal” that market concentration in the U.S. has been increasing since the 1990s due to oligopolies, thus causing income inequality and efficiency problems. However, as Baumol, John Panzar and Robert Willig contend in their book on contestable markets, efficiency problems do not arise when markets are contestable, where entry and exit of businesses are relatively easy. Antitrust laws and regulations must make sure that there are minimum barriers to entry and exits in markets.

The threat of entry is precisely what persuades incumbents to constantly engage in innovations, maintain market share and increase profitability. In the long run, exorbitant profits are driven down by competition due to the entry of new competitors, who also bid up wages for the labor they need to compete. I am sure most are familiar with the fate of companies such as IBM, Xerox and Kodak, and traditional auto companies due to the entry of Tesla.

The U.S. economy is a free market economy and increasingly dominated by oligopolistic firms, mostly in service and high tech industries. In the short run, the labor market is going through a structural change, because it has not kept up with the emergence of new technologies. In some corners of the country, there is a battle cry for democratic socialism since a significant part of the labor force, due to inadequate technological training, especially in manufacturing, has not participated in the prosperity of businesses and the economy.

The short-term hardship of Americans, who are severely impacted by technological change, must be dealt with. But democratic socialism and crony capitalism (with tacit political favoritism) are not the answers. I hope our government learns some of the novel ways Nordic countries have dealt with the economic hardships of their citizens, not by promoting socialism and crony capitalism but by adopting free market strategies that promote innovations and growth.

Mathur is former chairman and professor of economics, Department of Economics, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH. He blogs at http://mathursblogonomics.blogspot.com.

Reversing American leadership in free trade subverts US interests


Vijay K. Mathur

In 1817 David Ricardo, in “Principles of Political Economy and Taxation,” proposed his theory of comparative advantage where he argued that trade policies in England were protectionist. Comparative advantage proposed that beneficial trade, between two countries and two products, for example, is probable even if one country is absolutely more efficient in the production of both products. However, in the 1930s most nations, including the U.S., imposed trade restrictions, such as tariffs and currency devaluations, to boost exports and reduce imports. Hence, world trade and economies shrank.

After World War II, the U.S., U.K. and 42 other nations met at Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, to fix the world trading system. They established the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to monitor rules for trade and international finance and provide financial assistance to countries with balance of payment deficits. Under U.S. leadership, the World Bank and the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT), precursor to the World Trade Organization (WTO), were established to provide assistance for economic development, promote trade liberalization and arbitration on complaints of unfair trade practices.

The U.S. leadership succeeded in opening up more trade among nations that benefited all countries, including the U.S. The U.S. total trade was 27.09% of the GDP in 2017 and was almost the same in 2018. Despite the U.S. tariffs on imports, the trade deficit increased by 10% during 2016-2017 (www.macrotrends.net) and 12.45% from 2017 to 2018 (https://.world101.cfr.org). It has narrowed slightly in 2019. However, Utah exports are close to three times its imports, thus resulting in a large trade surplus during 2017-2018. (www.census.gov). Regrettably, it may suffer from trade restrictions in future years. Business Roundtable reported that most exports from Utah are by small- to medium-size companies, and trade created 1 in 5 jobs in 2013.

Under President Trump’s administration, the U.S. leadership in promoting free trade is crumbling. The U.S. is engaged in dismantling the WTO court, weakening the institution that promotes free trade. Selectively imposing import tariffs from China and Europe, the largest trading partners, to improve trade deficits is not having much success. The U.S. withdrawal from multinational trade treaties, except replacing NAFTA with USMC (with minor changes), is not in the national interest.

Import tariffs on products do not provide effective protection to home industries. For example, an import tariff on electrical machinery and steel products increases production cost and prices of products. It decreases demand for products in the U.S., hence the demand for labor, capital and raw materials in the production of those products. Price increases also make our products less competitive in export markets, thus contributing to trade deficit, economic growth and employment. In fact domestic investment and growth is declining. Bloomberg economists calculate that a 25% tariff shaves 1.5% off economic growth, according to a May 13, 2019 article.

The Federal Reserve study from Dec. 23, shows that tariffs by U.S. in 2018 and retaliatory tariffs by trading partners have reduced manufacturing employment and increased producer prices due to an increase in input costs. Aside from the beneficial effect of trade on employment and prices, the question is what are the other gains from trade?

Trade enhances product variety and consumer choice. It promotes intra-industry trade. For example, the U.S. exports and imports automobiles of different makes, models, quality and prices. Trade increases competition in the markets, and leads to economies of scale in differentiated products. The most productive firms (businesses) survive and expand and less productive firms contract or go out of business. This increases overall productivity in industries and in the country, and hence wages. More productive and competitive firms with expanding local and world markets innovate new products and processes. Thus competition increases churn in markets and promotes formation of new businesses.

Imports from lower wage countries, especially in manufacturing, do lower wages and real incomes in the U.S., especially of mid-skill Americans. But loss of wages and income is also partly due to the use of new technologies in businesses. This problem can only be fixed if the U.S. competes in the world market in high-valued products, for example in services and intellectual property-based industries. It must train the labor force for those advanced industries. Competing in traditional manufacturing products is a lost cause. The intellectual property dispute with China is an excuse for general protectionist policies. A policy that claims that trade restrictions would brighten the future living standard of Americans is self-defeating.

Leadership requires that U.S. persuade other nations to further open their markets to increase world trade so that all can prosper in the future.

Mathur is former chairman and professor of economics, Department of Economics, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, OH. He blogs at http://mathursblogonomics.blogspot.com.