Vijay K. Mathur
The CDC recently reported that 67% of Americans have at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 51% of adults are still unvaccinated, and almost a quarter of adults probably or definitely will not get the vaccine. Thus, the significant percentage of unvaccinated people poses a threat to others from this contagious disease — especially from the surge in delta variant. The surge in this virus in some regions also imposes a heavy burden on the health care system. Employment and economic growth may be thwarted, thus creating once again economic misery among many Americans. The question arises — are these unvaccinated adults, especially those who do not want to get the vaccine, making a rational decision?
Refusal of vaccination does not fit the assumption of rationality in economics. Rational behavior requires deliberate, logically cohesive, consistent behavior, as well as behavior that results in the most satisfying outcomes. Professor Thaler, a 2017 Nobel laureate in economics, in his book “Misbehaving,” lays down some foundational principles of behavioral economics that may provide some insights into the behavior of people adverse to the COVID-19 vaccine. The principles Thaler discusses overlap many of the principles discussed by Professor Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist and a 2002 Nobel laureate in economics. He wrote a path-breaking book on human behavior, “Thinking Fast and Slow.”
Thaler argues that humans pay more attention to “identified life” than “statistical life.” For example, when your neighbor’s son dies due to COVID-19, you are more willing to assist your neighbor, financially or otherwise, than when the Utah Health Department publishes deaths in Utah due to COVID-19. Perhaps many Utahns’ decision to avoid vaccination is not based upon rational thought that involves more complex decision-making, cognitive abilities and serious and deliberate thought processes. Kahneman describes two modes of thinking that affect human behavior and decision-making. He refers to them as System 1 and System 2 of the mind. In many decisions, System 1 operates automatically, quickly, effortlessly and without any forethought.
However, complex decision-making requires System 2 that affects System 1 thinking. Such decisions involve cognitive intelligence, total focus on the issue, logical thought processes, serious and deliberate effort, and investigation to acquire as much factual information as possible.
Human behavior is also affected by costs born by making a decision. However, people pay more attention to out-of-pocket costs than opportunity costs (costs of giving up something because of a particular decision). If people think that they will pay a very small sum or none at all out of their pockets if they are hospitalized or get sick temporarily due to COVID-19, then that is a small price to pay for their behavior. However, the opportunity cost of being sick — e.g., lost income from work and/or good health — is too complex to calculate. It will require Kahneman’s System 2 in ascertaining the cost of their decision to avoid vaccination. Most likely, if unvaccinated people face higher insurance costs and/or out-of-pocket hospitalization costs, many, if not all, may decide to get the vaccination.
The prevalence of behavior based on System 1 provides an opportunity to influential people, politicians, bureaucrats and media outlets to “prime” such individuals with certain ideas and words. The priming effect occurs when one influences actions of others by ideas and using key words. Images and environmental factors could also prime individuals into certain actions. Kahneman states that,” A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact.”
Primed ideas also prime other ideas like “ripples in the pond.” It seems that former president Trump has learned this lesson well. He has primed his followers, including many politicians in the GOP and supporters in some conservative media outlets, in not believing in the benefits of vaccination for COVID-19. Fearmongering about the dangers of vaccination still continues among many GOP politicians in Congress, other conservatives and media outlets.
Americans must not be blinded by illusionary facts about the efficacy of the vaccine. In matters of life and death of others and themselves, and costs to their communities and the nation if the virus spreads, Americans must use their cognitive abilities to modify their ad-hoc decision about their refusal to get the vaccination. As Maya Angelou stated, “You may not control all the events that happen to you, but you can decide not to be reduced by them.”
Vijay Mathur is a former chairman and professor in the economics department at Cleveland State University, Cleveland, Ohio. He resides in Ogden. Published in Standard Examiner, July 20, 2021.
